Category

Executive Message

Living In Unprecedented Times

By | 2020, Executive Message, Money Moxie | No Comments

The last five months have been record-setting in more ways than we could have imagined. The impact has been wide-reaching – and I am not referring to the COVID-19 virus numbers.

Technology has provided opportunities that have businesses, including ours, to service clients and continue to run their operations while working from home. It allowed students to continue their studies remotely and check in with their teachers when needed. We have access to almost anything: news, shopping, connecting with family and friends, and investment markets, all of which are amazing. In fact, it is hard to imagine what we would have done without technology.

Newer technology has opened the doors for people to save and invest at entry levels without barriers, such as minimum investments. Apps have become popular among the DIY crowd, which are too often young and inexperienced investors.

Securities regulators have spent countless hours creating Regulation Best Interest, as explained in Mikal’s article. Regrettably, they have done little to educate and protect DIY investors who are not prepared for the leveraged risks and hidden fees of this new world. One of these investors even paid the ultimate price.

An app on a phone gives anyone fingertip access to investing. One of these apps offers game-like screen appearances, prompts users to place trades when looking up a stock ticker, and displays falling confetti to make them feel good when placing a trade. These apps even allow investors to leverage their investment through options – something professionals are required to have tested and trained for before offering them to their clients. What these apps do not offer is common sense or an advisor to help investors understand the associated risks of specific investments. They lack education and risk assessment before making speculative, high-risk investments.

We have heard disastrous reports of investors borrowing on credit cards and accessing home equity loans to invest, only to lose the lion’s share of their investment. As financial advisors, we find this very disheartening.

All investors should be educated about their investment options, risks, and costs. Smedley Financial makes a concerted effort to provide you with information and education regarding investing through our Money Moxie and Money Matters newsletters, regular webinars, seminars, and, most importantly, one-on-one meetings with clients. If you have questions or need more information regarding finances or investing, please reach out to our wealth management advisors.

Tags: , , , , ,

Facing Coronavirus Uncertainty, Think Long Term

By | 2020, Executive Message, Money Moxie | No Comments

I often include the phrase, “Past performance does not guarantee future results,” to remind us that uncertainty will always be an integral part of investing. I also repeat the words, “Long term,” frequently to help keep perspective in the face of uncertain times.

Warren Buffett understands uncertainty and long-term investing. He is one of the wealthiest individuals on the planet and one of the best investors of all time. Recently he gave us a glimpse into how he is viewing the extreme pessimism and optimism on Wall Street. On May 2, 2020, Warren Buffett conducted a virtual shareholder meeting. In the discussion, we learned that Buffett has been selling some and holding much of his investment portfolio during the Covid-19 pandemic. With around $137 billion in cash, many people thought Buffett would be buying aggressively. We also learned how he is viewing short-term and long-term investing now that he is 89 years old:

I hope I’ve convinced you to bet on America. Not saying that this is the right time to buy stocks if you mean by “right,” that they’re going to go up instead of down. I don’t know where they’re going to go in the next day, or week, or month, or year. But I hope I know enough to know, well, I think I can buy a cross section and do fine over 20 or 30 years. And you may think, for a guy, 89, that that’s kind of an optimistic viewpoint. But I hope that really everybody would buy stocks with the idea that they’re buying partnerships.

At the age of 89, Buffett is still thinking 20 to 30 years into the future. That’s an important lesson for all of us because the likelihood of making money increases with time.

The Dow Jones index is made up of 30 stocks, so it’s not a comprehensive example, but it is perhaps the oldest index. Over the last 100 calendar years, the probability of a positive return in any given year was 69%. That’s not bad, but that means that 31% were negative. Now that’s uncertainty. At the extremes, the Dow lost over 50% (1931) and gained 63% (1933). That’s what we call short-term.

I would define long-term as 10 years or more. It makes a big difference. The Dow was positive 83% of the 10-year periods and 96% of the 20-year periods. Only during the Great Depression were the 20-year numbers negative, but any investor who could have stayed invested would have done well in the latter half of the Depression and in the decades to come. Through these 100 years, the Dow averaged a 5.7% annual return (and that does not even include dividends).

So, while uncertainty will probably always be difficult to embrace, time can be our ally. Warren Buffett is choosing to think this way at the age of 89. I firmly believe that the same perspective will be beneficial to us as we continue through the 2020 Coronavirus pandemic and beyond.

*The Dow Jones index is often used to represent the U.S. stock market. One cannot invest directly in an index and of course, past performance does not guarantee future results.

Tags: , , ,

Investing Is Not Like Buying A Refrigerator

By | 2020, Executive Message, Money Moxie, Newsletter | No Comments

Some people think that investing has been simplified so much that it is like buying a refrigerator: You spend a few hours researching the options and then select a product that will last for 10 years. While there have been significant improvements to simplify investments, there is still a world of knowledge that is needed to select the right investments for your personal goals and time horizon. Buying the wrong refrigerator won’t wreck your retirement, but buying the wrong investment might.

Inside of a 401(k), the participant is the money manager. Because of this, the options had to be simplified. This has given rise to retirement-ready investments that have target dates based on when a participant will retire. We applaud this because most investors don’t know the nuances of investing in large-cap companies vs. small-cap companies, etc. The closer you get to retirement, and the more assets you have, the more important investment selection becomes.

Investment selection is less like picking out a fridge and more like being the forecaster for a home improvement store. That forecaster must determine beforehand how much is needed of each product, for each department, at the right time of year. If the quantity or timing is significantly off, then it puts the store in jeopardy of decreasing revenue and potential bankruptcy. Because of this complexity, a forecaster needs to have advanced training, education, and experience.

With investments, not only do you have to understand the individual investment, but you also must understand how it is impacted by the different market sectors, business cycle movements, politics, and the world economic environment.

At SFS, we are lucky to have a chief investment strategist, James Derrick, who has his MBA, CFA, and two decades of money management experience. He managed investments through the downturns of 2000-2003 and 2007-2009 when the S&P 500 lost 55% and 57%, respectively.* In fact, other financial advisors hire James and SFS to manage their clients’ money.

Don’t risk your retirement nest egg. You aren’t buying a refrigerator. Choose a money manager with the foresight, knowledge, and experience to help protect you against the downturns while allowing your assets to grow in the good times.

Tags: , , , ,

Your Success Is Our Success

By | 2019, Executive Message, Money Moxie | No Comments

I was asked by a prospective client why it was so hard to find a good financial advisor. They had been around the valley visiting several of the financial advisors they heard on the radio. They heard about us through a friend and decided to give us a chance.

My response was, “Just because someone screams the loudest, doesn’t mean they’re the best.” Many firms rely on high marketing budgets to keep new people coming in the door. However, these large expenses can often lead to higher expenses for the clients and often leads to high turnover.

We strive to keep our costs low and to maintain our client relationships for the long run. With this intent we don’t spend a lot of money on marketing. We strive to provide incredible service, holistic financial plans, and elite active management. We realize that if we take great care of our clients, they may tell their friends about us, and those friends may become clients. Ninety percent of our growth comes from client referrals.

We realize that trust is not easily earned and harder to keep. Thank you for choosing Smedley Financial as your private wealth manager.

Tags: , ,

Federal Reserve Is Expecting Winter In July

By | 2019, Executive Message, Money Moxie, Newsletter | No Comments

Last February, St. George, Utah had its biggest snowstorm in 20 years. Nearby, Zions National Park closed. Local schools did a late start. Motorists on the freeway were asked to use snow chains. The storm total? 3.8 inches! So, not that much . . . if one is prepared.

Without a doubt, the greatest risk in such a situation is overconfidence. The same could be said about investing. And even though it is summer, the Federal Reserve is going to start spreading salt on the roads for wintery conditions.

As I write, the Fed is preparing for its 5th meeting of 2019, which will be held July 30th–31st. The overwhelming majority of experts believes the Fed will lower interest rates for the first time in a decade. It would do this to encourage greater borrowing and give the economy a boost.

Celebrating a rate decrease this July is like increasing your speed on a sunny day while the snowplow drivers are starting their engines. Why are the plows heading out?

The U.S. economy has been growing at just over 2 percent for a decade. Tax cuts provided a short-term bump, but it looks like the growth is headed right back to the 10-year trend. That’s not so bad, but it has the Fed nervous.

If the Fed lowers rates at the end of this month, it is sending a signal to the rest of us that the experts believe there may be some rougher weather ahead. They will be dropping the salt on the roads in anticipation. Only time will tell how the forecast and driving conditions will change.

Are you driving too fast for the conditions with your investments? Stocks and bonds have been wildly positive this year, which has some investors too excited. Most of these gains just brought market prices back to where they were before a negative overreaction last December. That drop has had a lasting impact on how most investors feel. In other words, the market data is neither hot nor cold right now, but investors are too focused on one or the other. So, when it comes to your investments, I recommend going the speed you and your advisor decided on in your last review.

Tags: , , , ,

Women Face Unique Challenges. Good Decisions are Essential.

By | 2019, Executive Message, Money Matters, Newsletter | No Comments

This year marked the 4th anniversary of our Just for Women conference and the launch of Smedley Financial’s Just for Women community. Hooray!

We want to thank the women who have participated in our community. Together, we have created a meaningful experience that engages, empowers, and educates women of all ages and from all social and economic backgrounds.

Women face many unique challenges when it comes to financial security: longer life expectancies; the likelihood that they will be in the driver’s seat, financially speaking; reduced pension payouts and retirement account balances due to periods away from the workforce to raise children or care for an aging parent. This reality makes it even more important that they set precedence regarding finances. Women should become more educated, build financial confidence, and most importantly–make good financial decisions.

Good decision-making will have a more significant impact on financial success than skill and talent combined, regardless of your gender. Dalbar, an independent research firm, has confirmed this. Their 25 years of research has found that investors’ performance has suffered significantly due to poor decision-making. Decisions which have been emotionally based or made in the “heat of the moment” tend to end with poor results.

This issue recaps some of the highlights of our Just for Women conference. If you were not able to attend, please make it a priority to join us next year — mark your calendar for May 8, 2020. Hopefully, our women’s community will help ignite a financial passion in everyone who participates.

If you would like to receive our Just for Women – Money Matters email, send us a request at [email protected] Provide your name and email, and we’ll make sure you receive the next issue.

Tags: , , ,

Your Personal Inflation Rate Versus Published Inflation Rates

By | 2019, Executive Message, Money Moxie, Newsletter | No Comments

The cost of daily living, especially health care and long-term care, are not going down. But your ability to pay for them will drop once you retire. In fact, the longer you live, the higher the impact of inflation will be.

A case in point: The cost of a first-class forever stamp jumped 10 percent from 50 cents to 55 cents on January 27, 2019. On January 1, 1952, a first-class stamp only cost 3 cents for the first ounce.

People are living longer, much longer. A couple, both age 65, have a 50 percent chance that at least one of them will live to age 92.1 The government’s published CPI is for everything and everyone in general. Your personal inflation rate will be higher because, as you age, rising health care and long-term care costs will be a more significant proportion of your spending.

Health care costs are escalating. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, health insurance experienced an average inflation rate of 2.63 percent between 2005 and 2019. The overall inflation rate was 1.84 percent during this same period. What cost $20.00 in 2005, cost $28.76 in 2019. That’s 43.78 percent higher 14 years later.

Seventy percent of people 65 and older will need long-term care.2 However, Medicare will only pay for a limited number of days of skilled nursing care and only after hospitalization.

Unfortunately, these long-term care costs are rising at historic levels–much faster than other expenses. While the cost of living increased by 1.7 percent, long-term care rose 4.5 percent.3

Early planning for a longer life and a higher personal inflation rate is critically important. That’s why we at Smedley Financial create and build plans for our clients to live to age 95 as well as develop a realistic, personal inflation rate for you to help you prepare for the coming surprises of retirement.

Tags: , ,

Our Passion Is Your Financial Success

By | 2019, Executive Message, Money Moxie, Newsletter | No Comments

At Smedley Financial all of our efforts are focused on one thing: Your Financial Success! Let’s specifically define what those words mean. Financial planning is ultimately about getting you to where you want (and need) to be. It is using what you have to accomplish your goals.

How do we view our role as your financial fiduciary?

Being Your Financial Bodyguards: As your financial bodyguards, we strive to protect you from unscrupulous people. We strive to protect you from those that wish to separate you from your money permanently. At the other extreme, we strive to be your financial bodyguards between well-meaning friends and family. Simply put, few people can afford to lose any money. Loans to loved ones seldom get repaid. This is especially true if you have retired or lost a spouse. Hint: That’s why we need you to call us about any and all requests for money.

Taking the Right Types of Risk: Specifically, we strive to help you take more of the right types of risk and avoid the wrong types of risk. If you are too aggressive (greedy) or too conservative (fearful), you may end up broke. Caution: Being too extreme, either way in your risk-taking, may be dangerous to your wealth.

Protecting and Growing Your Assets: Protecting your assets is imperative for your financial success. The majority of people tell us they don’t want to lose what they have already worked for and accumulated. Hence the adage: First, do no harm.

Growing your assets is crucial going forward. We have had several clients live well into their 90s, and one even made it to 100! Hint: Our job is to strive to manage your personal wealth. Your job is to manage your emotions, never getting too high or too low.

By using Smedley Financial, what does this mean to you? It means we are fully invested in you. We not only put your interests ahead of ours, but we also strive to offer you our best advice, knowing what we know, based on what we would do in your same position. Our passion is your financial success.

Bullish Best Wishes,

Roger M. Smedley, CFP®
Chief Executive Officer

Tags: , , ,

Your Leading Indicators

By | 2018, Executive Message, Money Moxie | No Comments

Dear Financial Partners and Friends!

Leading economic indicators are predictive changes that give us clues about the future direction of the economy. Lagging indicators are after the fact. They confirm what has already happened.

Just as the economy has leading and lagging indicators, so does your personal financial preparedness. Regardless of your age, or alternatively, your personal lifecycle, ask yourself where you are in the following questions.

  1. Do you have a three-to-six-month emergency fund that matches your net income?
  2. Are you free of all debt?
  3. If you were to die suddenly, would your family have enough money to live now and through retirement?
  4. Do you have enough money saved for retirement? (See graph below.)
  5. Are the beneficiaries and contingent beneficiaries on your retirement accounts, life insurance policies, etc., the way you desire?
  6. Have you created will(s) and trust(s) and ensured they are up to date?

If you answered “Yes,” to all of these leading indicators, then you are financially prepared for the future. If you answered “Yes,” to most of these, then you are on the right path. If you answered “No,” to most of these, then you should take immediate action. Please come and talk with one of our expert wealth managers who have the experience, credentials, and training to get you to and through your retirement years.

So many changes can take place within a year’s time, that when it comes to your personal finances, it is better to be safe than sorry. The most important people in your life depend on you. Will they be harmed or helped by your preparation or lack thereof?

Bullish Best Wishes,

Roger M. Smedley, CFP®
CEO

Tags: , , , ,

How Much Money Will You Need in Retirement?

By | 2018, Executive Message, Money Moxie | No Comments

Dear Financial Partners and Friends!

If we were to ask what percentage of your final salary you will need in retirement, you could probably come up with an answer off the top of your head. In reality, determining what you will need to live on and making sure you have enough to meet that need is extremely complex.

A front-page article in the Wall Street Journal’s Wealth Management section on September 4, 2018, by Dan Ariely & Aline Holzwarth, made this astute observation: “Answering a question as complex as this requires knowledge far beyond most people’s grasp—and far beyond the grasp of many professionals.”

Why is retirement planning so difficult? Because it’s all about longevity, the future cost of federal and state taxes, cost of property taxes, cost of health care, cost of long-term care, the opportunity cost of being too conservative or the penalty cost of being too aggressive, cost of living, as well as daily living and possible travel expenses, just to name a few. Retirement cash-flow planning is not for the faint of heart.

While many think that health care cost will be the largest expense in retirement, the surprise is that for most folks, taxes are the single, largest expense. It’s impossible to generalize for everyone, but taxes are levied on withdrawals from qualified retirement accounts such as IRAs, 401(k)s, and pensions. If you have too much income, your Social Security benefits may also be taxed during retirement.

Integrating tax planning with cash-flow planning may help bring considerable and tangible benefits. Preserving your hard-earned dollars through tax planning is crucial in delivering and providing a sustainable cash flow during your retirement years. Having said this, melding tax planning and cash-flow planning is very complicated.

The great news is that you don’t have to go it alone. At Smedley, we can help you navigate the white waters of retirement tax planning and cash-flow planning. Please come and talk with one of our expert wealth managers who have the experience, credentials, and training to guide you to and through your retirement years. Your financial success is our passion at Smedley Financial.

Best Wishes,

Roger M. Smedley, CFP®
CEO

Tags: , , , ,