Dow 100,000: Crazy Talk or the Next Inevitable Milestone? — Mikal Aune

In February 2026, the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 50,000 for the first time in history. So when someone says the Dow could reach 100,000, it sounds absurd. But history says otherwise.

In 2007, the Dow peaked just above 14,000. At the time, that felt enormous. It had nearly reached 12,000 back in January 2000, so after seven long years of going down and back up, investors had only gained about 2,000 points.

Then came the financial crisis. By March 2009, the Dow had fallen to roughly 6,550, down about 53% from its peak. Investors were rattled, and many believed the rebound would fail. Some even predicted the Dow would fall all the way to 2,000.

Yet in 2010, a mutual fund company published a piece title 2020 Vision: The Case for Equities in the Decade Ahead.1 Their argument was simple: it would take only a 7% average annual return for the Dow to reach 20,000 by 2020. At the time, that sounded unrealistic. Many people dismissed it.

The Dow hit 20,000 by 2017.

That call was not based on blind optimism. It was based on long-term market history, innovation, and the continued growth of American companies around the world.

Now look where we are. In just 17 years, the Dow has climbed from about 6,550 to roughly 46,000. If someone had predicted that in 2009, most people would have laughed them out of the room.

That is why Dow 100,000 should not be dismissed so quickly. Yes, we will have recessions. Yes, we will have painful pullbacks. That is what markets do. But history and time have a way of making bold predictions look obvious in hindsight.

Sir John Templeton once predicted the Dow would reach 100,000 in this century. From current levels, it would take about a 7.2% annual return over the next 10 years to get there. That brings us to 2036, which is not nearly as far away as it sounds.

Dow 100,000 may sound crazy today. Then again, Dow 20,000 once did, too.