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COVID-19

2021 – Year of the Vaccine

By | 2021, Money Moxie, Newsletter | No Comments

Irrational Exuberance
On January 7, 2021, Elon Musk tweeted a recommendation that people replace the social media app Slack with Signal. Instantly, the stock for Signal Advance, Inc. began to climb. It finished the day up over 500%. Unfortunately, Signal Advance does not have a social media app.

Investors should have started selling the moment the mistake was publicized. Instead, the stock kept rising. In less than a week, Signal Advance rose 11,700%!

Let’s look deeper into what a number like this really means. An investor who owned $10,000 of this stock would have had nearly $1.2 million three days later. Of course, groups often move in irrational ways, but at some point, the truth begins to matter. On the fourth day, it had an epic fall, giving up most of the gains.

Behavior like this has happened before. In fact, it was common back in 1999. On April 1, 1999, The Wall Street Journal reported the story of AppNet Systems, which filed to have its stock publicly traded. That day, investors began buying up Appian Technology. Despite being described as an “inactive company,” the stock rose 142,757% in two days. Needless to say, it didn’t end well for most of these investors.

In 1999, online trading was new, and so were the internet chat rooms where investors could share stock tips. It seemed that nothing could stop the momentum.

Warning Signs from 2000
Technology stocks began to fall in February 2000, and the rest of the market began to fall in March. What triggered the decline? Were there any signs?

(1) Was it Yahoo’s addition to the S&P 500 on December 7, 1999, which signified the acceptance of technology domination in the investment world?

(2) Perhaps it was the symbolic show of a new world order when internet upcomer AOL purchased media giant Time Warner on January 10, 2000?

(3) Finally, could it have been that the S&P 500 price divided by future earnings was at an all-time high of 26 in February 2000?

(If you don’t remember or have never heard of AOL, well, that proves the point I am trying to make. Good investing is very different from speculation.)

Investor Mindset
Greater and greater stimulus from the federal government and the Federal Reserve have created an environment where some investors are only focused on return. They ask themselves, “How much money do I want to make?” Then, they invest accordingly.

Of course, there is no limit to how much money most people want, which is exactly why this won’t last forever. The stock market is not an ATM.

This bull market will end. However, it is difficult to accurately predict the timing of a falling market when in the middle of a powerful bull market. It could be in February or, with all the government support, it may keep going throughout 2021.

Government stimulus and all the new money that comes with it will have to go somewhere. This could be a great support for investors as 30% of the stimulus is not needed by its recipients and gets saved. Roughly the same amount is spent, and another part pays off debt. All of these help the stock market either directly or indirectly.

If even more stimulus comes in 2021, then we can expect more spending and more investing.

What could go wrong in 2021?
Unintended consequences are an incredible risk for the unprecedented government stimulus we have experienced. However, we have not seen any major negatives yet. Until we do, it is quite possible that the stimulus will continue to flow in 2021.

I will be keeping an eye on inflation. In the Great Depression, America had the New Deal. People were paid to work. In the pandemic of 2020, people were just paid.

As the money is spent, demand could outstrip supply, and prices could rise. If inflation somehow reaches 3% in 2021, then I believe the Federal Reserve will take the punch bowl away from the party. For now, Fed Chairman Powell says he is “not even thinking about thinking about” doing that. So, no reason to panic.

What could go right in 2021?
I expect a great rotation to begin at some point in 2021. This change could end what I would call the profitability of speculation. However, it does not necessarily mean a crash in the market. I’ll explain.

When the economy was barely growing over the last 10 years, it didn’t make sense to run from growth. This made it possible for technology, which was a poor investment from the year 2000 through 2008, to become a leader. Technology was the undisputed leader of 2020 as it was also well positioned for the stay-at-home economy during the pandemic.

Technology represents over 25% of the U.S. stock market, but this is not a fixed level. Just before falling out of favor in 2000, it was 30%. By 2008, it was only 15%.

Keep in mind that in 2020, technology only represented 6% of the U.S. economy and just 2% of employment. That means there is a massive amount of opportunity out there just waiting to regain strength. I believe that at some point in 2021, we will get that change of focus and market leadership.

International stocks, small company stocks, industrial stocks, and energy stocks have already begun to strengthen after years of lagging behind.

Only time will tell, but if the new trend continues as it has over the last few months, then we may be seeing new market leadership that will point the way forward for years to come.

*Research by SFS. Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. The S&P 500 index is widely considered to represent the overall U.S. stock market. One cannot invest directly in an index. Diversification does not guarantee positive results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the author and may not actually come to pass. This information is subject to change at any time, based upon changing conditions. This is not a recommendation to purchase any type of investment.

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Why Investors Feel So Bullish

By | 2020, Money Moxie, Newsletter | No Comments

The stock market exploded higher in November along with cases of COVID-19, just as it did in April. Despite all the challenges of 2020, it seems the market is so bullish that it can only go one way. The reality is that anything could happen. The future is not predetermined, and the market does not think for itself. It is merely a compilation of investors’ views – a popularity contest, or as Warren Buffet calls it, “a voting machine.” For most of 2020, investors have viewed all good and bad news as positive. “Heads I win. Tails I win.” It is all a matter of perspectives–perspectives that I would like to explore.

Government Help
Stimulus in Spring and Summer was 6 times greater and was spent 6 times faster than that for the Great Recession of 2008/2009 (David Kelley, JP Morgan). The impact was incredible! It immediately forced stocks upward. Then it lifted spending, especially on items like homes, cars, furniture, and laptops.

Many Americans are in great need of more help and may get it. This additional stimulus may not come until February and will likely be much smaller than in May. However, with the economy already doing okay, the stimulus would be viewed as positive from the perspective of investors.

Low Rates
The Federal Reserve said it would build a financial bridge to the end of the pandemic, and it has stuck to that statement. It has lowered interest rates and promised to keep them low unless inflation averages move well beyond 2%. This has pushed investors away from low-yielding bonds and into riskier assets, pushing stock prices even higher.

These low rates have also increased the affordability of homes, which has, in turn, pushed those prices up.

One major risk is stocks could get too hot – a problem that contrasts with the uncertainty of 2020.

Improvement
The COVID-19 pandemic won’t last forever. With positive vaccine news, we can now see the light at the end of the tunnel.

With investors and consumers already feeling optimistic, there is the potential for more economic growth.

Investors have anticipated this improvement and continue to push up prices. While we are enjoying the higher market, we recognize that the more hot stocks get, the greater the chance of them being overcooked. We continue to emphasize the need for a good strategy and personalized plan.

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Market Resiliency Overcomes Biases

By | 2020, Executive Message, Money Moxie, Newsletter | No Comments

As we near the end of 2020, we can look back on what we have experienced over the last 12 months, and more importantly, what we have learned from our experiences. Good and bad, we have all been impacted by the events brought on by COVID-19.

Evaluating the past is helpful in looking forward to a new year and the seasons of life ahead. Unfortunately, it is easy for our perspective to be swayed by biases we have developed. Biases are subconscious thoughts that shape our opinions and drive our behaviors. A bias might cause us to make assumptions about the future, such as “The market has changed and will never be the same again,” or, “Life as we know it has changed forever.” These are examples of Recency Bias. Our brain takes a recent experience and uses it as an atlas for all future decisions. It is almost like tunnel vision; we can only see one outcome.

Over the past 26 years, I have learned that every experience is different. Each is driven by a new set of circumstances – always changing. Our personal situations, the economy, and financial markets are fluid, ever-shifting. No one can predict what will happen in the future, positive or negative.

The market has faced many headwinds in the past – the dot com bubble, the Great Recession, Brexit – and has recovered from each. The economy has ebbed and flowed through market cycles while dealing with inflation pressures, political change, unemployment, and many other factors.

When I think of these hurdles, which seemed insurmountable at the time, I cannot help but be awed by the resiliency that followed the hard times. It is that perspective that gives me hope and a positive outlook for what lies ahead.

While the next six months may look fuzzy and hard to predict, the longer-term picture appears more defined, clear, and encouraging.

I am grateful for you, our clients, and the opportunity to help shape your financial future. I wish you and your family health, happiness, and prosperity in the years to come.

Wishing you a safe and happy holiday season.

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What To Do With Your 401(k), If…

By | 2020, Money Moxie | No Comments

1: You are still employed by the sponsor company

Keep investing! The 401(k) implements an effective purchasing strategy called dollar- cost averaging. This strategy involves making regular and continuous fixed-dollar investments. But it is more than just a payroll deduction plan. Dollar-cost averaging removes the risk of trying to time the market.

By using dollar-cost averaging in a long-term investment account, the average cost per share ends up being less than the average price per share. This is because you buy less shares when prices are high and more shares when prices are low. In other words, volatility can work in your favor. So keep investing.

2. You are no longer working for the sponsor company but are employed elsewhere

You have some options.

(1) You can take a partial or full distribution. In most cases, this is a taxable event and may carry additional tax penalties. In rare situations, is this a good idea. Speak with a professional advisor before choosing this option.

(2) You can leave your 401(k) with your previous company. You can no longer contribute to it, but it will continue to perform based on the investments you have selected.

(3) If your new employer offers a 401(k) and you are eligible for it, you can roll your old 401(k) into your new 401(k) plan. This is a tax-free rollover, and you will need to select new investments based on what the new plan offers.

(4) You can roll the old 401(k) into an IRA. In most cases, this is what we recommend. An IRA gives the account owner more control, more investment options, and better planning opportunities than a 401(k). Like a 401(k), an IRA is a retirement account with annual maximum contribution limits and early withdrawal penalties. A rollover is not considered a contribution, and therefore any amount can be rolled.

3. You are no longer working for the sponsor company and are not employed

You have the same options as above, with the obvious exception of rolling to your new 401(k). If you are retired, however, the rollover option to the IRA may be even more appealing. When it comes time to take distributions from your retirement accounts, the IRA has some significant advantages. Some of these include better risk management strategies, tax-saving distribution strategies, and avoiding mandatory distributions from Roth accounts.

4. You need financial help due to COVID-19

The CARES Act allows some individuals to take early withdrawals from retirement accounts in 2020 without the early withdrawal penalty. If you have been diagnosed with COVID-19, have a spouse or dependent diagnosed with COVID-19, or have experienced a layoff, furlough, reduction in hours, have been unable to work, or lack childcare because of COVID-19, you may qualify. Withdrawals may impact your tax liability, so speak with a financial advisor before taking an early distribution.

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Unprecedented Times

By | 2020, Newsletter | No Comments

It is unprecedented times like these that bring people together with a common focus and a shared desire. Protecting the lives of our family, friends, and community has become top of mind, and our daily efforts reflect that devotion.

While times have changed, our commitment has not waivered. Your financial success and well-being are our top priorities. We are diligently working to stay abreast of the changing financial landscape and keep you on track to meet your financial goals.

When creating financial plans, we are continually watching for bumps in the road that could prevent our clients from reaching their goals. Financial markets and the associated volatility are not unexpected. In fact, market volatility, as a risk, is built into every plan we create, whether you are working toward future retirement or enjoying retirement now.

Having had the opportunity to help clients through multiple bear markets, and numerous market corrections, we know that sticking with your plan delivers the best opportunity to achieve financial success.

We will continue to use email and social media to stay connected and keep you informed. We will resume sending postal mailings when COVID-19 restrictions have been lifted.

I invite you to contact one of our wealth managers to discuss your situation, get answers to your questions, and hear what Smedley Financial is doing to help protect your financial future. We are working remotely and are still available.

I want to thank those who have reached out to us, concerned about our well-being. Your thoughtfulness is very much appreciated.

It is our greatest hope that you and your loved ones stay healthy and safe.

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