5 Signs the U.S. Economy Is Just Fine
- My plumber is still too busy to show up on time.
Every dollar spent on residential construction circulates through the economy with an impact of $3. This is known as a multiplier effect. In comparison, a dollar spent by the U.S. government is estimated to have a $1.50 impact (source: National Association of Home Builders).
Last year, residential construction spending rose 4.7%. Although it has decreased since then, it is still positive. - On my way to work, I saw plenty of trucks pulling out of the gravel pits while dropping their little rocks on the roads.
Construction makes up around 4% of U.S. GDP. Using the multiplier effect, the total impact of construction spending is likely around 12% of the entire economy. - Recently, I visited Costco, and it felt like a normal day. The parking lot was busy, requiring me to walk half a football field to enter the store.
Consumer spending represents almost 70% of the economy and is currently growing at 3.4%. That is down from 4.7% in 2024 but still positive. - There is a 60-minute wait at most restaurants on Friday nights.
Back in 2008, I recall not waiting for a table. Eating out is not a necessity, but it is popular. It would take a major change for Americans to go back to cooking every meal. - The other night, I saw several cars in line at the soda shop.
Soda shops are a discretionary trend. Soda addicts may disagree, but cheaper alternatives do exist. If these businesses are doing okay, then so must be the economy.
5 Signs the U.S. Is Heading Towards a Recession
- Airlines are making profits from their issued airline credit cards and not from flying passengers.
This is not a good sign. - Gamblers are risking less money in Las Vegas.
Researchers predict a 5.8% decrease in visitors to Nevada this year. Gamblers may not have lost their confidence in luck, but they are losing confidence in the economy. - Longer skirts are in fashion for women in 2025.
The Hemline Index theory, created in 1926, suggests that skirt lengths rise and fall with the stock market. I don’t invest based on fashion, but recent studies show skirts are lengthening. - Men’s underwear sales may be slowing down.
Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan (1987-2006) believed men could care less about their undergarments in bad economic times and save money by not replacing them as often.
Stocks for the two largest domestic underwear companies aren’t looking so good in 2025. I hope this improves soon for the sake of us all. - A new skyscraper, the tallest in the world:
The Jeddah Tower in Saudi Arabia.
British economist Andrew Lawrence developed a theory in 1999 that the world’s largest buildings are only constructed when the economy is ripe for a downturn.
Notable examples are the completion of the Chrysler and Empire State buildings in New York just prior to the Great Depression.
