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Roger M. Smedley CFP® Archives -

Just In Case You Missed It

By | 2018, Executive Message, Money Moxie, Newsletter | No Comments

Dear Financial Partners and Friends!

How is the U.S. economy really doing? Here are a few quotes and facts regarding the past, the present, and the future.

The Past: “We Ran Out of Words to Describe How Good the Jobs Numbers Are,” (“The Upshot,” Neil Irwin, The New York Times, June 1, 2018.)

The Present: The U.S. economy jumped to an annualized rate of 4.1 percent GDP in the second quarter of 2018. That’s almost double the first quarter’s rate of 2.2 percent. This is the fastest rate of growth since 2014. This is great news for all of us!

The Future: The following quotes are from Elizabeth MacDonald’s, “Evening Edit,” Fox Business News, July 19, 2018. MacDonald said,“(Here are) CEO commitments for more jobs over the next 5 years.”

FedEx®: “FedEx® will train or reskill 512,000 people over the next 5 years.”

General Motors®: “General Motors® is proud to offer 10,975 workforce training opportunities.”

The Home Depot®: “The Home Depot® is pleased to provide enhanced training and opportunities for 50,000 associates.”

Raytheon®: “Tom Kennedy from Raytheon® and we pledge 39,000 enhanced career opportunities.”

The U.S. economy is doing well. As a result, most Americans are doing well. Remember this: Your financial success is our passion and our mission at Smedley Financial.

Best Wishes,

Roger M. Smedley, CFP®
CEO

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What Drives Happiness?

By | 2018, Executive Message | No Comments

Dear Friends and Financial Partners!

It’s true that 2017 was and will remain one of the most memorable years for the stock market. We all have much for which to be grateful and not just in the monetary sense.

About two years ago I came across a TED Talk: “What makes a good life? Lessons from the longest study on happiness by Robert Waldinger.”1 Waldinger is a Clinical Professor of Psychiatry at Harvard Medical School. He is the fourth director of one of the longest-running studies of adult life ever done. It is the ongoing 75-year-old Harvard Study of Adult Development.

The study answers the important questions about what keeps us happy and healthy. Here’s a hint: It’s not about fame or money or our stations in life. It’s about family. It’s about relationships. It’s about the people in our lives.

Another validation about relationships comes from the late Randy Pausch. “People are more important than things,” Pausch said in his book The Last Lecture.2 When Pausch, a computer science professor at Carnegie Mellon, was asked to give such a lecture, he didn’t have to imagine it was his last lecture, since he had recently been diagnosed with terminal cancer.

Again, “People are more important than things.” The keys to a good life involve the family and friends in our lives. It’s the people we know and our relationships with them that truly drive happiness.

We cherish you, our clients, and our special relationship with each of you. We never want to take you for granted. Thank you for being the greatest people on the planet.

Bullish Best Wishes,

Roger M. Smedley, CFP®
CEO

1. Robert Waldinger, “What Makes a Good Life?,” TED Talk, November 2015.
2. Randy Pausch, “Last Lecture: Achieving Your Childhood Dreams,” Carnegie Mellon University, December 20, 2007.

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2017 A Banner Year! Where to from Here?

By | 2018, Money Moxie | No Comments

The following is quoted from WealthTrack with Consuelo Mack.

“For answers about the 2018 stock market (S&P 500) we turn to Ed Hyman, Founder, Chairman, Head of Economic Research at Evercore, ISI, a top-ranked macro and investment firm. Hyman was voted #1 Wall Street Economist by Institutional Investor’s survey of professional investors for an incredible 37 years. His comprehensive, but succinct and easily digestible daily macro research is considered a must-read by professional investors.”

“To understand where we are growing, it helps to understand where we have been. A central thesis of Hyman’s is that the stock market drives economic activity. Since 1968–that’s a 50-year stretch–the S&P 500 has increased 20 percent or more only 12 times. Last year (2017) it came within a hair of doing so with its 19.4 percent gain.”

“In 10 of those 12 times, the economy was strong the following year. Taking out the effects of inflation, real GDP increased 2.7 percent or more. So 83 percent of the time economic activity was robust. The average for the 12 years after market advances of 20 percent or more was 3.4 percent real GDP growth.”

“The S&P 500 last year had another distinction. According to Hyman’s team, 2017 was the first year ever that the S&P 500 posted positive total returns–that’s including dividends–every month. The previous closest perfect year was 1995, which had only one down month. The market that year (1995) was up 34 percent. The following year (1996) it gained 23 percent, dividends included, and real GDP was a gang buster 4.5 percent.”

Bullish Best Wishes in 2018,

Roger M. Smedley, CFP®
CEO

The S&P 500 is widely considered to represent the U.S. stock market. One cannot invest directly in an index. Investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of
the author and may not actually come to pass. This information is subject to change at any time, based upon changing conditions. This is not
a recommendation to purchase any type of investment.

Source: WealthTrack, Episode #1429, Broadcast January 5, 2018

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What’s Up with the Stock Market?

By | 2017, Executive Message, Money Moxie, Newsletter | No Comments

Dear Friends and Financial Partners!

In spite of turmoil, tragedy, and terror, the U.S. stock market has not been suppressed during the last 12 months. Rising jobs and wages continue to support strong economic growth. In the U.S. we are experiencing the lowest unemployment in 17 years, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Simultaneously, we have the highest consumer confidence in 17 years, according to The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®. Keep in mind that seventy percent of the U.S. economy is driven by consumer spending.

This rise in the stock market is not limited to the United States. It is a global phenomenon. The stock markets of Britain, France, Germany, and a host of other countries are also performing well.

Here’s how the S&P 500 has performed in the last two years. In 2016, the S&P 500 reached 18 new highs and was up 9.54 percent. This year, through November 30th, there have already been 57 record highs for a return of 18.26 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ have also set new record highs this year.

Dealing with the Wall of Worry
Many of us will readily recall Black Monday, October 19, 1987 when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped 508 points and finished the day at 1,738.74. That’s a decline of 22.61 percent. Thirty years later, on October 19, 2017, the DJIA finished the day at 23,557.99 points. That’s a compounded interest rate of 9.08 percent per year. (By the way, most people forget that even with that large of a drop in 1987, the year finished up a positive 2.26 percent.)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the most important indicators used to gauge the health of our economy. GDP is the value of all finished goods and services produced by the U.S. Here’s the GDP by quarter in 2017: 1st Quarter—1.6 percent, 2nd Quarter—3.1 percent, and 3rd Quarter—3.3 percent. Wow! It has been several years since GDP has been this high. Researching money managers around the country, most managers believe that this climb in the stock market can continue and, yes, that there may be a Santa Claus rally in the works.

Bullish Best Wishes in 2018,

Roger M. Smedley, CFP
CEO

*Consumer Confidence Index is a registered trademark of The Conference Board.
**The S&P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones Industrial Average indexes are widely considered to represent the U.S. stock market. One cannot invest directly in an index. Investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the author and may not actually come to pass. This information is subject to change at any time, based upon changing conditions. This is not a recommendation to purchase any type of investment.

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A Confession from a Successful Investment Advisor

By | 2017, Executive Message, Money Moxie, Newsletter | No Comments

Dear Friends and Financial Partners!

That’s quite a headline, “A Confession from a Successful Investment Advisor.” Here’s the confession:

The truth is astonishingly simple, “If we’ve been at all successful, it’s because you, our clients, have been successful. Our success only comes through your success.” Since June 4, 1982, when we became a Registered Investment Advisor, we have always strived to put your best financial interest first.

Over the years, many clients have shared with us how we helped them send their children through college or on missions, retire early, or live comfortably during their declining years. They have told us how our financial planning and investment management have allowed them to maintain lifestyle, travel, and handle life’s major medical expenses.

As a fiduciary, we strive to put ourselves in your shoes, endeavoring to give you the best advice based on our professional financial knowledge. So thank you, thank you for trusting us with your financial concerns and assets.

We are grateful to be your financial and investment advisor. By far the most gratifying—not just satisfying—part of our job is seeing you reach your financial goals throughout your lifetime.

Bullish Best Wishes,

Roger M. Smedley, CFP®
CEO

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Forge a New & Powerful Financial Paradigm

By | 2017, Executive Message, Money Moxie | No Comments

Dear Friends and Financial Partners!

How can you improve your savings and investing before and during your retirement? Here are some nifty (some might say awesome) tips to immediately change your personal money paradigm.

Change Your Money Mind-set: Chris Reining, who lives in Madison, Wisconsin, became a millionaire at age 35 by doing one thing differently. Chris started working to save and invest, rather than working to spend. By going through a self-imposed paradigm shift, your life can also transform from a working-to-spend environment to a savings-and-investing world. The outcome speaks for itself. This is one powerful idea.

Get Professional Financial Help: Ours, of course. When you are accumulating assets in your 401(k) or 403(b), you are in an automatic investment mode. If you don’t know what the sequence-of-returns risk is or how dollar-cost averaging works against you during your withdrawal years, you are already behind and need our help. Social Security has over 2,700 rules and hundreds of exceptions to these rules. Medicare is filled with land mines. Distributing assets during the decumulation phase is exponentially more complex than adding assets.

Take Charge of Your Emotions: Don’t let your emotions take charge and dictate your actions. Specifically, when the stock market is dropping or has dropped, don’t lock in your losses! Remember: Stock market drops are temporary. Locking in losses is permanent. Locking in losses by selling at or near the bottom of a market may be a mistake you and your loved ones will pay for the rest of your lives.

Ignore the Media: Call us. We know your specific financial goals. We manage money and segment your accounts by time to avoid the sequence-of-returns risk. Even when the media is all doom and gloom, there’s a good chance your accounts will be doing just fine with respect to your own financial goals. “The Sky is Falling” mentality illustrated by Henny Penny, more commonly known in the U.S. as Chicken Little, may cause you to want to lock in your losses. Don’t do it. Even well-meaning friends and family members can push you away from financial goals.

Remember: Contrary to many, investing is not about beating the market. Financial planning and investment management are about meeting your goals, including having a sustainable income stream during retirement. At Smedley we strive to help you forge a powerful, yet personal financial paradigm. As always, we are on your side.

Bullish Best Wishes,

Roger M. Smedley, CFP®
CEO

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Sharla Jessop–President of Smedley Financial

By | 2017, Executive Message, Money Moxie, Newsletter | No Comments

Dear Friends and Financial Partners!

Smedley Financial Services, Inc.® is pleased to announce that Sharla J. Jessop, CFP®, was elected and has accepted the position as President of Smedley Financial, effective immediately. Sharla was elected by acclamation at our annual Board of Directors meeting in February 2017.

Sharla officially joined forces with Roger on March 1, 1994. Sharla had previously worked as an insurance agent for 10 years in Ogden and Salt Lake City. Shortly after starting, Sharla astutely passed four exams in four months.

Sharla became a Certified Financial Planner® certification holder on October 10, 2006. This includes meeting rigorous professional standards and passing multiple challenging examinations plus a 2-day, 10-hour comprehensive exam.

One of the best things about Sharla is her love for people. With Sharla, you, our clients, have always been first and foremost in her mind. She has always put your best interests first. Her ethics are above reproach.

Sharla has always been a powerhouse. From the beginning she has demonstrated great drive, energy, and ability. In so many ways Sharla has been fearless. She has met challenge after challenge. Sharla has always been teachable. If she didn’t know something, Sharla wouldn’t stop researching until she found the correct answer.

What you may not know about Sharla is that she is well-respected nationally. Many of her peers throughout the United States seek her input on a regular basis. Sharla has made time for mentoring new advisors throughout the United States.

So, at Smedley, we are entering a new era. I’ll still be around as the Chief Executive Officer (CEO).

Bullish Best Wishes,

Roger M. Smedley, CFP®

CEO

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Make Markets Great Again?

By | 2017, Executive Message, Money Moxie, Newsletter | No Comments

Happy New Year Dear Friends and Financial Partners!

With the new President of the United States, namely Donald J. Trump, substantial changes may be coming our way. Below is a compilation of optimistic perspectives on the incoming administration.

Corporate Tax Cuts: Maria Bartiromo of Fox Business Network posed the following question to House Majority Leader, Congressman Kevin McCarthy, (R-CA). Maria Bartiromo: “One of the analysts that I had on the morning show the other day on Fox Business Network said, ‘A drop in the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 15 percent will equate to a 20 percent increase in corporate earnings.’ Do you agree with that?”

Congressman Kevin McCarthy: “I do agree… and when you look at what we’ll do in the House, our number one focus is jobs. We need growth in America. Growth in America will solve so many problems. You won’t be able to stop this deficit unless we grow” (Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo, December 11, 2016, Fox News Network).

Tax Repatriation Plan for Cash: Many corporations have chosen to keep their foreign profits overseas rather than pay the U.S. corporate tax rate–one of the highest in the world. Bringing these funds–estimated to be $2.6 trillion–back to the United States with only a 10 percent tax payment versus the current 35 percent rate could create hundreds of thousands of jobs. But its impact totally depends on how the money is deployed.

On Bloomberg Television, Goldman Sachs Senior Investment Strategist Abby Joseph Cohen addressed the repatriation of cash. “In 1999 and 2000, 70 percent of the cash, by companies in the S&P 500, went back into the company for things involving growth: capital spending, R&D (Research and Development), even cash acquisitions from operating assets. That 70 percent number is now 42 percent.

“If that money comes (back to the United States) and there are no restrictions in terms of how that money is used, one of the things I worry about is a good deal will go for… share repurchase alone or dividend increases, and so on, and not into growth, the benefit to the nation will not be there.”

Regulatory Environment: American businesses claim to be smothered by new rules and regulations, thus holding back Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Congressman Kevin McCarthy: “The Obama Administration has just put all of these new regulations on us, kind of just pushed the economy down, pushed investment out. Why? Because the new people being hired were hired to carry out new regulations, instead of more output.

“The Obama administration, in just the first six years, proposed more than 500 major rulings. And this is really important because you do not become a major ruling unless it gets scored that it’s going to cost $100 million (or more) to business” (Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo, December 25, 2016).

In 2017, we may see common sense changes in the law that will create greater check and balance among the branches of our Federal Government. The Regulations from the Executive In Need of Scrutiny (REINS) Act states that no major ruling of new regulation that costs more than $100 million can be imposed without a passage of the House and Senate. The Sue & Settle Reform states that you cannot have a new regulation until any previous lawsuits are settled.

Economic Growth: Abby Joseph Cohen: “GDP growth in the United States is very likely up 2.2 percent, something along those lines. If we look for ways in which that number would be wrong, it’s probably more likely to be stronger, rather than weaker, in part, because the economy is ending 2016 on an accelerating note.”

Know this, what presidents propose and what actually takes place may be two different things. President Obama had this to say about our next president: “I…think that (Trump) is coming to this office with fewer hard-and-fast policy prescriptions than a lot of other presidents might be arriving with. I don’t think (Trump) is ideological. I think ultimately, he is pragmatic in that way. And that can serve him well as long as he has got good people around him and he has a clear sense of direction” (November 14, 2016).

At Smedley Financial we have only been able to harvest what the stock market is willing to deliver. If the market gives a little more to your portfolios then you will be closer to reaching your financial goals. To us, investing is about meeting your personal financial goals in a careful and prudent manner, and not necessarily meeting or beating a benchmark.

Finally, the most important thing to remember is this: Always call us if you have any questions or concerns. We mean it. Don’t be hesitant to contact us. We are your financial advocates and financial bodyguards.

Have a Most Prosperous New Year!
Roger M. Smedley, CFP®
President

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The Attitude of Gratitude

By | 2016, Executive Message, Money Moxie | No Comments

Season’s Greetings Dear Friends and Financial Partners,

Recently, I heard a man talk about being cut off in traffic. Rather than complaining, the man surprised me by saying that less than one percent of the world’s population will own or even be in a car. He had the attitude of gratitude. Now, I don’t know how to test the veracity of the man’s statistic, but his point was well received by me.

In the United States of America, so many of us are blessed to live like kings and queens. A little over one hundred years ago, our forefathers did not enjoy the conveniences of indoor plumbing, hot water on demand, carpeting, microwave ovens, refrigeration or air conditioning. These modern-day conveniences are quite remarkable and only made possible by the hard work and sacrifice of those who have gone before.

Perhaps you are familiar with this phrase by the English mathematician Sir Isaac Newton some 340 years ago in 1676: “If I have seen further than others, it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants.” Sir Isaac Newton was just 34 years old when he uttered those words.

What Sir Isaac Newton meant—while pondering his life as a physicist, astronomer, alchemist, inventor, natural philosopher, and mathematician—was that by using the understanding gained by major thinkers, who had gone before, he was able to make the intellectual progress that he did.

In a similar way, each generation of Americans has sought to make the lives of their children and grandchildren better than their own. Today, we are the beneficiaries of those who have gone before. (FYI: From Latin, the prefix, “bene,” means well or good.)

We have all heard of someone who has survived a horrific disaster, such as an earthquake, flood, major automobile accident, or household fire. It is not uncommon to hear him or her say, “Thankfully, I have my family and what else matters?”

Everything that is ultimately important comes back to our family and friends. It all comes down to our personal relationships with each other. At Smedley Financial, you become not only our friends, but more like family. We are so grateful for you.

Please have a safe, wonderful Thanksgiving and Christmas, and a Happy and Prosperous New Year!

Bullish Best Wishes,

Roger M. Smedley, CFP®
President

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A Lesson from the Decathlon Gold Medalist

By | 2016, Executive Message, Money Moxie, Newsletter | No Comments

Greetings Dear Friends and Financial Partners,

During this year’s Summer Games, I watched an interview with Ashton Eaton. At the time of the interview, Eaton was the reigning Gold Medalist and world-record holder in the decathlon from 2012. Eaton stated that he had a different mindset today than he had four years ago.

Eaton said his main goal four years ago was just to be there at the Summer Games. To get there, he did everything right physically. He was ready to go.

During the last four years, Eaton believed he had become smarter. This time around Eaton focused on preparing himself for all of the things he would not be able to control—the unknowable. He didn’t want to be surprised. As a result of his efforts, Ashton Eaton once again became the Gold Medalist by winning the decathlon competition in 2016.

What can we learn and how can we benefit from the paradigm shift in Eaton’s mindset?

Eaton’s 2012 training can be compared to our retirement planning. In our preparation we may focus on a financial number and like Eaton we may just be glad to be there. However, retirement is really just the starting line of another race—a race that may be different than what we expected.

There will certainly be unexpected expenses and unforeseen health challenges. Your investments will rise and fall daily in the commotion of the financial markets. How can you manage your assets in a world with so many things you cannot anticipate, let alone control?

Your investment results may ultimately be determined by how you psychologically prepare for the ups and downs of the market. It’s not the stock-market action that you should worry about. It’s your reaction to what’s happening!

At SFS, we can help you identify unforeseen events that may impact your financial well-being. We will create a plan that will help protect your assets and create an income designed to last throughout your retirement years. When the unexpected happens, you can feel confident. You have prepared. Call us.

Bullish Best Wishes,

Roger M. Smedley, CFP®
President

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