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investments

Climbing a Wall of Worry

By | 2020, Money Moxie, Newsletter | No Comments

Climbing a wall of worry is a common phrase in the investment world. The implication is that the market will move higher as it overcomes uncertainty. In 2018, the U.S. stock market had its worst December since 1931. It followed with the best returns since 2013. The American consumer kept things going in the economy at just above 2 percent while interest rate cuts and asset purchases by the Federal Reserve made all the difference for the markets.

Don’t Fight The Fed

In 2018, the Federal Reserve (Fed) was on auto-pilot: raising interest rates unless something went wrong. By December 2018, the Fed’s actions spooked investors.

By July 2019, the 2-year government bond paid a higher interest rate than the 10-year. That is what we call an inverted yield curve. The short-term rates are somewhat controlled by the Fed. The long-term rates are more driven by investors. So, the inverted curve is the result of investors believing that the Federal Reserve is making a mistake by keeping short-term rates too high. Over the last 50 years, the Fed has never been so quick to react as it was in 2019. This very well could have helped us avoid a recession in 2019-2020.

The Fed seems willing to do whatever it takes to keep this steady economy going, but the Fed is also going to try to stay out of the way in an election year. I expect it will take a large change in the economy to entice the Fed to make any changes to interest rates.

After three interest rate cuts last year, the Fed really may not have to engage in more stimulus in 2020. The impact of those cuts is likely to trickle down into the U.S. economy this year.

More Slow Growth: No Recession

The U.S. economy has averaged 2-3% economic growth for the last 10 years. This trend is likely to continue. Corporate earnings in the United States ended 2019 near zero. Expect a bounce. However, uncertainty over global demand, trade, and politics will probably continue. Once again, economic growth will rely heavily on American consumers.

Coronavirus: Watch For a Peak

Coronavirus has spread incredibly quickly through China, and around 2.3 percent of those who become infected, die of the disease. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared it a global health emergency on January 30, 2020.

Of recent outbreaks (Ebola, Zika, & SARS), SARS seems the best comparison. SARS spread more slowly. The World Health Organization did not declare it a global crisis until the number of people infected peaked (March 12, 2003).

In 2020, the Chinese government and the WHO have acted more quickly to contain Coronavirus. If successful, infections should peak in February. If efforts fail immediately, it seems likely that, just as with SARS, Coronavirus will be on the decline by March.

*Research by SFS. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Dow and S&P 500 indexes are widely considered to represent the overall stock market. One cannot invest directly in an index. Diversification does not guarantee positive results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the author and may not actually come to pass. This information is subject to change at any time, based upon changing conditions. This is not a recommendation to purchase any type of investment.

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The Congruity of the Annuity

By | 2019, Money Moxie, Newsletter | No Comments

Too often we have people come into our office after having just attended a free dinner that preceded the purchase of an annuity. “A guaranteed return with no downside risk” is what they believe they now own. That sounds great. I would purchase that too. However, it isn’t until after a lengthy conversation that they begin to understand how their annuity truly works.

An annuity can be a great financial product if it is congruent with the overall portfolio. There are times we use annuities to accomplish specific objectives and are pleased with how they perform in these situations. The problem we often see with the annuity is not the product itself, but how it is used. In other words, the ambiguity of the annuity can lead to incongruity, and the solution could require some ingenuity.

Annuities can be complicated. If you are considering an annuity, make sure you understand how it fits into your financial plan…and also its policies, fees, expenses, commissions, terms, benefits, exclusions, riders, investment options, and waiting periods. Due to their complexity, they can be easy to misuse, which can create significant financial problems.

An annuity is a contract between you and an insurance company. There are three main types of annuities: fixed, indexed, and variable. Each type has its own objectives and fits into a financial plan differently. Each type also carries its own expenses, level of risk, and earning potential. Even within their individual types, they can vary greatly depending on the insurance company that issues them.

Annuities can be expensive. The average annuity costs approximately 3% per year. It is important to understand that there are often expenses you don’t see. Unfortunately, too many salesmen do not clearly explain the costs, nor how they are applied. I have seen annuities advertised with “No Fees!” In truth, however, these same annuities carry large expenses.

It is also important to understand that annuities are illiquid. This means you can’t access most, if not all, of the money in your annuity without surrender charges for a significant period (usually 7-10 years). Annuities are long-term investment contracts and you’ll pay hefty fees if you take your money out too soon.

Again, we believe annuities are great at doing what annuities do. It just isn’t often we meet with people who have a need for them. If you are wondering whether an annuity is right for you, come and see us. We will always be upfront and honest about the cost and structure of the products we sell. If an annuity does make sense in your financial plan, we’ll help make sure you purchase the most appropriate and cost-efficient annuity for you.

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Year-End Tax Strategies

By | 2019, Money Moxie, Newsletter | No Comments

We are closing in on the holiday season. Before you slip into the holiday mode, let’s talk about a few ways you can wrap up the year!

1. The market has had an incredible run. This is an excellent time to look at your non-retirement accounts to see if you can take advantage of tax harvesting.

If you have an investment that has gained $10,000 and another that has lost $10,000, you can sell both investments and avoid paying tax on the capital gains. This matching of gains and losses is known as tax harvesting.

The gains and losses do not have to match exactly, but your gain and loss have to both be long term or short term. If you have held an investment for more than a year, it is considered a long-term capital gain and would be taxed at capital gains rates. If you have held the investment for less than one year, it is considered a short-term gain and would be taxed at the higher ordinary income tax rates. Either way, the resulting tax savings can be significant.

2. Here’s a win-win strategy. If you don’t have losses to offset your gains, you can still get tax relief by donating to a cause about which you are passionate or your favorite charity: church, school, food bank, hospital, etc. Consider this – donating an appreciated investment directly to your charity of choice will avoid taxes.

To qualify, you must have held the investment for more than one year, and it must have appreciated in value. You avoid paying taxes, and the charity receives the full value of your donation tax-free. The money you would have donated can be used to purchase another investment to start the process over again.

3. Current tax rates are at historic lows. Consider converting money from a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. You can choose how much to convert. For example, if you have room for another $10,000 of income before you hit the next marginal tax-bracket, make it count.

Before the year ends, convert $10,000 from your traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. If you are under 59 1/2 years old, you will have to pay tax on the conversion with other money – say from a savings account. If you are over 59 1/2, you can have taxes withheld from the distribution.

The benefits of Roth IRAs are tremendous. Roth IRAs grow tax-free, meaning you never pay taxes on the earnings, there are no required distributions at any age, and if you do not use the money during your lifetime, your beneficiaries receive the money tax-free!*

4. If you are over 70 1/2 years old and you have an IRA, you can donate part or all of your Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) to your favorite charity and pay no taxes. This distribution is called a Qualified Charitable Distribution (QCD). The distribution still satisfies your RMD. This cannot be done from a 401(k). If you have a 401(k) and want to take advantage of this next year, you need to roll out your 401(k) before the end of the year.

*Tax-free withdrawals if certain conditions are met: a five-year account aging requirement and attaining age 59½, becoming disabled, using up to $10,000 to buy a first home, or upon death. SFS and its representatives do not provide tax advice; it is important to coordinate with your tax advisor regarding your specific situation.

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Investment Truth

By | 2019, Money Moxie, Newsletter | No Comments

Just when you think you have things figured out, the world changes.

As investors, we get excited when the markets rise and fearful when they fall. The world is always happy to give us advice. At SFS, our goal is to identify the truth in the cacophony of headlines so we can implement strategies to help you navigate a changing world.

We may be tempted to believe that if we work hard enough, we can predict what will happen. This is not true. The stock market seems to move in the direction that surprises the greatest number of people. Just when investors think they know, the world changes.

Following rules can help us avoid many investment mistakes. Over long periods of time (10+ years), the U.S. markets have almost always been positive. Implementing this rule means this: stay invested.

Warren Buffett described the stock market as a mechanism that transfers money “from the impatient to the patient.” You will feel more patient in difficult times if you have a customized financial plan with your goals and a plan of action.

Volatility is normal. The ups and downs are a part of investing, but they are exactly what leads to poor decisions. Combat this tendency with diversification and risk management.

In theory, good diversification should mean that a portion of your portfolios is making money. In reality, there is no guarantee, but diversification still helps.

Measuring risk begins by accurately determining how much risk you can and should take. Take too much and there is no way you can make good decisions in the storm. Take too little and you won’t reach your goals. Oscillate back and forth between the two, and you are likely moving backwards.

Our advisors at SFS can help you know how much risk is appropriate for you, and we can get you in a portfolio to match that need.

These are just a couple of my rules that help me maintain successful strategies in a world of endless opportunity and obfuscation. We blend all the rules with the economic realities we see in order to give you the best advice and portfolios that we can.

*Research by SFS. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. S&P 500 time period chosen to display a sample of the timing of government actions. The S&P 500 is an index often used to represent the U.S. stock market. One cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the author and may not actually come to pass.

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Bull Market Turns 10!

By | 2019, Money Moxie, Newsletter | No Comments

How a Lesson from 2009 Could Help You in 2019

Ten years ago, the stock market and the economy were in disarray. These were dark financial days for most investors and most Americans.

By March 1, 2009, the Dow Jones index had fallen over 50 percent from its high (from over 14,000 to nearly 6,500). One advisor asked me what would happen if it dropped another 50 percent. His faith in a turnaround was being tested. It turned out that the Dow did continue to slide lower, but for just one more week and the loss was not another 50 percent, but only 3 percent.

A client called to close her account. She was fortunate because she had invested conservatively and had actually made money since the crisis began. She didn’t care. She was petrified–wanted zero risk. She sold out. That was March 2, 2009. Exactly 7 days later, the market hit bottom.

The client and advisor missed out. The S&P 500 has increased 305 percent since its low in 2009, and that doesn’t even include dividends. As we have stated many times,

“If you want to see the sunshine, you have to weather the storm.”
–Frank Lane

December 2018 provided the same lesson with less drama. This time, investors really seemed to be acting irrationally. The market fell around 19 percent in a very short amount of time. Sentiment surveys at CNN Money and the American Association of Individual Investors were recording record lows.

However, our indicators at SFS were not flashing a crimson red. In December 2018, those that focus on employment and consumers (70 percent of the economy) looked strong. Low energy prices also seemed good.

What about the sentiment indicators? Using the emotions of investors as a signal is not very reliable. These emotions can change quickly, so they cannot signal what is likely to happen in the coming year or years. They are also a better indicator of what not to do, which means we had another reason to be optimistic.

In short, we absolutely believed the market would reverse course and move higher. For all our investors that weathered the storm, the sun did shine again and brightly.

Where do we go from here? I said last December that things were not as bad as they seemed. Now I am telling investors that things are not as good as they may look.

With evidence of slow growth, the Federal Reserve will stop tapping the breaks on the economy. Plus, there is plenty of cash that left the stock market in the fourth quarter that has not returned to the markets, yet. Both are reasons to not give up hope for a positive 2019.

The S&P 500 is often used to represent the U.S. stock market. One cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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What is the Risk of being too Conservative

By | 2018, Money Moxie | No Comments

Are your conservative investments at risk? What about the cash you are keeping in your savings account or in the safe downstairs? “No,” you might be thinking, “I keep cash because it’s safe.” If these are your thoughts, I have some bad news. In an effort to avoid risk, you could be taking on a different kind of risk. I’m talking about inflation risk and it’s a silent killer that preys on the innocent.

Inflation can cause damage too small to be seen until it’s too large to be avoided. And the more conservative the investment, the greater the risk. “But wait,” you might be saying, “I thought conservative investments were safer and risk increased only as I invested more aggressively.” That is generally true with market risk, but it does change when considering inflation risk.

According to inflationdata.com, inflation has historically averaged just over 3%. This means on average a dollar will buy 3% less than it did 12 months earlier. A product that costs $100 dollars today will cost over $2,000 dollars 100 years from now. When my father was young, a candy bar cost 5 cents. I remember paying 50 cents as a child. Today, a candy bar is $1.25. That’s inflation.

If our money is not earning at least the rate of annual inflation, our purchasing power is decreasing. My father could’ve bought almost 20 candy bars with a dollar when he was young. With the same dollar, a child today couldn’t even buy one.

As you can see in the Risk vs. Reward graph I’ve provided, the more aggressive the investment, the greater the potential should be for gain, especially over long periods of time. However, I want to call your attention to the left side of the graph, the conservative side. This side of the graph shows little to no risk being taken and yet there is a loss. That is the risk of being too conservative. This loss isn’t a loss of principal, but a loss of purchasing power.

Keeping up with inflation should be an investor’s number one goal, and some conservative investments struggle to do that. Conservative investments do serve an important purpose and are a great choice for short term goals and emergency funds. But if your goal is long-term, adding a little more risk may actually reduce inflation risk. Investing in a diversified portfolio that includes stock market and bond market risk may help protect you from inflation risk.

A real area of concern for inflation risk is in retirement. If these investors don’t keep up with inflation, they could risk living longer than their money. At a 3.5% inflation rate, the cost of goods will double every 20 years. This means an 85 year-old couple who keep their investments in cash will have half the purchasing power they did when they retired at 65. Although the principal amount would be the same, it would be like a 50% loss. That is a risk I hate to see investors take.

For more information on inflation risk, market risk, and the risks taken in your current portfolio, please call us and schedule an appointment. We would love to answer any questions you have and help you to reduce unnecessary risk.

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2017: Record Breaking Year

By | 2018, Money Moxie, Newsletter | No Comments

Entering 2017, I was more optimistic about the potential growth in stocks. In fact, my expectations were higher than 13 of 15 major investment companies. This optimism became a basis for staying invested throughout the year whether the market went up or down. The results were very positive.

I also assumed that at some point in 2017 we would wake up to some major down days. This never happened. The market just continued to climb all year long.

The S&P 500 (with dividends) rose every month last year for the first time ever! A positive return in January 2018 would bring the streak to 15 months in a row. Second place goes to a streak of 10 months stretching from December 1994 to September 1995.

These are powerful trends, considering the probability of any month being positive is around 60 percent. Strong momentum like this typically continues even after the streak is broken.

A second record was set that began in the final days of December. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its quickest 1,000 point gain ever!

For three consecutive years I have accurately predicted the major actions of the Federal Reserve. I wrote: “This year, I am going to try something new: accepting the Federal Reserve’s forecast that it will raise rates 3 times in 2017.” That is exactly what happened.

I believe that keeping an eye on the Fed this year will be even more important than it was in 2017. You can see my analysis for 2018 here.

 

*Research by SFS. Investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. Dow and S&P 500 indexes are widely considered to represent the overall stock market. One cannot invest directly in an index. Diversification does not guarantee positive results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the author and may not actually come to pass. This information is subject to change at any time, based upon changing conditions. This is not a recommendation to purchase any type of investment.

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2018: FOMO In the Stock Market

By | 2018, Money Moxie | No Comments

Protecting profit is profitable. Protecting fear is not. I keep this phrase on a sticky note below my computer to remind me that investment decisions based upon fear lead to mistakes. I have seen it during the major market meltdowns of 2000-2002 and 2008-2009. I have seen it in smaller drops, like January 2016.

There seems to be little fear of a market drop in 2018. I believe investors may now be protecting from another kind of fear and the consequences may again be surprising.

The Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO)—popular among youth today—describes investors worldwide. Stock markets have been so good people are asking, “Am I aggressive enough?”

Excitement and expectations have been rising and there has been a lot of money to be made. In just the first 10 trading days of 2018, the S&P 500 returned almost 5 percent! Worldwide averages were even higher! That is after returning over 30 percent over the last two years for U.S. large company averages. It is as though investors have accepted the massively positive moves as the new normal.

The market does not have to follow the economy perfectly. The market’s performance is also determined by how reality measures up to expectations. So, the most likely thing to go wrong this year may be a failure to meet lofty expectations.

Consider the awesome year-to-date returns. If the “5 percent in 10 trading days” were to continue for the rest of the year, then we would have a return in the S&P 500 of 217 percent! It’s not going to happen.

The best way to prevent a mistake is by not getting caught up in the FOMO. Don’t get too aggressive right when things could slow down.

While I believe a few surprises may cost those throwing caution to the wind, the market is unlikely to experience a major hiccup while the economy is still growing. That leaves us with plenty of reasons to stay invested in 2018.

*Research by SFS. Investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. Dow and S&P 500 indexes are widely considered to represent the overall stock market. One cannot invest directly in an index. Diversification does not guarantee positive results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the author and may not actually come to pass. This information is subject to change at any time, based upon changing conditions. This is not a recommendation to purchase any type of investment.

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Investing According to Your Goals & Your Time Frames

By | 2017, Money Moxie, Newsletter | No Comments

In financial planning, goals and investing go hand-in-hand. These are then combined with your personal attitudes towards risk to determine the investments that should be used.

When investing in the market, it is important to understand the associated risks, such as market volatility. This includes level of fluctuation and the amount of time you are willing to endure these ups and downs of the market.

One important consideration is to determine when the assets you are investing will be needed to fund your goal. For example, saving for retirement is a long-term goal, saving for your children’s education is most likely an intermediate-term goal, and saving for a new car would probably be a short-term goal.

Referencing the chart on this page will help you determine the time frame of your goals. If it is zero to three years, it would be best to keep your assets in a conservative location.

If your time frame is 10+ years, choosing to invest aggressively may be the best choice for you. A lot of the decisions also rely on your personal investment risk tolerance.

As your financial advisors, we can help guide you to investments that best match your investment goals, timelines, and objectives.

For instance, if your goal is saving for retirement, a 401(k), 403(b), or Roth IRA may be the best option due to the tax benefits. We can also look at your holdings and determine if they are invested to match your risk tolerance and time frame of when the assets are needed.

If a goal is to save for a down payment on a home in the next five years, an advisor can help you open an account that would be best suited for that goal.

For example, a 401(k) would not be the best option for this situation due to the taxes and 10% penalty for early withdrawal. Plus, in this situation there would be a loss of opportunity for growth on those assets. The best option may be an individual account with transfer on death, or a joint account with rights of survivorship.

We can help you set up appropriate types of accounts for you goals and then help manage the levels of risk. We even look at minimizing tax consequences.

There are a lot of options that come into play when determining how and where to invest. When looking at time frames, you may have to take risk–but take only the appropriate amount. If you’re planning to buy a home in a year and invest your down payment in a very risky stock, the results could be disastrous. You could delay your goals or even destroy a dream.

Use the chart as a guideline to help fund your goals and remember we are always here. Let us help guide you!

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Gambling – with Your Retirement?

By | 2017, Money Moxie, Viewpoint | No Comments

To encourage better investment behavior, the Nasdaq stock exchange plans to reward investors willing to commit. In 2016, the exchange introduced plans for an “Extended Life Order.” In today’s fast-paced world, how long a commitment does the Nasdaq want for an extended life trade? One second!

Information travels fast in 2017 and the stock market seems to hit highs every week. Nevertheless, I believe it is the patient, long-term investors that should benefit the most.

It’s hard to define long-term perfectly, but it is a lot more than one second–possibly somewhere above 315 million seconds, which is around ten years.

With this in mind, I think it is a good time to consider what kind of investor we want to be and what attributes we need to be successful.

Speculator/Gambler
Investing is different than gambling in many fundamental ways. However, it is still possible for investors to speculate with their savings. A speculator trades often based on short-term events hoping that a price will continue to rise or fall—anticipating a quick exit in a couple months, weeks, days, or less.

Investor
An investor purchases ownership in a company to help it raise money for profitable projects. As an owner, investors may even receive dividends.

Attributes for Success
To help determine what kind of investor you are, ask yourself, “How much would you accept in a year instead of $1,000 right now?”

Let’s hope your answer isn’t too far off one thousand dollars. The greater your number, the less financial patience you have—and patience is crucial to gaining wealth. It impacts spending, savings, and investing.

Combine patience with a little courage and then an investor truly has a chance at participating in the long-term opportunities that the markets have to offer.

Warren Buffett is one of the wealthiest individuals in the world. He built his fortune by being greedy when others were fearful and fearful when others were greedy. He purchased stocks in some of the most frightening times like during the Great Recession of 2008-2009.

Is Buffett a speculator or an investor? He certainly has patience and courage. When asked about his ideal time frame for holding an investment, Warren Buffett replied: “Forever!” Now that is an “extended life” commitment!

 

Sources: “Enhancing Long-Term Liquidity-Nasdaq Introduces the Extended Life Order” Nelson Griggs, Nasdaq.com, August 18, 2016
“Investor or Speculator: Which One Are You?” Jason Zweig, WSJ, December 10, 2016

Research by SFS. The Dow Jones index is often considered to represent the U.S. stock markets. One cannot invest directly in an index. Diversification does not guarantee positive results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the author and may not actually come to pass. This information is subject to change at any time, based upon changing conditions. This is not a recommendation to purchase any type of investment.

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